I think “hundreds” is most likely correct. It does not seem as if 35,000 protesters turned out today, even counting all the smaller events around the country.

If the numbers in past protests have been smaller, the real curve is not as steep as my guess, and both the Greens and the regime will have more time.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Math Guy, thanks for sharing your insights. I have some concerns about the actual estimates you used for numbers of protesters. I will try to get back to this tomorrow to reply to you at length as I’m currently live-blogging today’s (16th of Azar in Iran) protests.

“Not So Sure” … I don’t expect everyone to agree, but I disagree with your pessimistic view.

As for the rest… an interesting, if arcane, high theory analysis…. so appealing to the mind, so divorced I’m saddened to contemplate from… facts on the ground. May your hopes, your confidence be proved correct.

You lost me though right up front:

“Let’s be clear about something right here and right now: the movement that is called the Green Movement in Iran, is the Iranian people!”

Really? Ah, reminds me of Makmalbaf abroad…. “I am Iran, I speak for the greens.” Great drama.

If only we could see it. ah, but fear not, silence is but a manifestation of a roar across the universe.

I am a statistician studying mass movements and insurgencies. Your idea of the fractal, decentralized, self-organizing Green movement is on the right track, but there is an important detail that all Greens need to be aware of. I have found that mass movements and insurgencies both resemble epidemics. All three spread on a very specific exponential curve. They rise, faster and faster, until they either triumph or collapse.

I have worked out the parameters of this curve on examples like the failed student movement at Tienanmen Square, the collapse of Communism in Czechoslovakia, the rise of the Iraqi and Afghan insurgencies, and so on.

We want to predict the number of people willing to risk being beaten or arrested by protesting in the street. That is our key number. Those who shout ‘Allah-o-akbar’ are helpful but they do not face the same risks.

Getting data on the size of the crowds at the various Green protests has been very difficult. These are my best guesses after looking at YouTube video and studying eyewitness accounts:

late June and early July — hundreds only
funeral of Neda Soltan, July 30 — 2,500 to 4,000
Qods Day, Sept 18 — 10,000 to 27,000
Nov 4th embassy anniversary — 25,000 to 80,000

Using these figures I estimate the turnout for Dec 7 might be anywhere from 35,000 to 140,000.

It is critical that the Green movement stay on schedule, that it keep going out in greater numbers. Once the growth curve fails, generally the uprising is defeated. You MUST get greater numbers out in demonstrations next spring, to keep the momentum. Here are some estimates of the street presence of the Greens in coming months:

January — 70,000 to 300,000
February — 100,000 to 450,000
March — 130,000 to 600,000

and so on. The final confrontation may come as early as next summer, no later than next winter. The crowds will start to be as large as the June protests. The regime will likely not be able to withstand such large numbers a second time, especially if they are shouting slogans against the Supreme Leader and not just against Ahmadinejad.

Knowing about the curve is a great help, but it means that delay is dangerous. Victory will come on a schedule, as it did in the Baltic States, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany. It will be slower than it was in those places, months instead of weeks, but the shape of the curve is exactly the same. The bolder souls lead, and the rest follow, in a pattern given by nature (it is not only fractal, but a maximum entropy curve, if you know what that means). In time, people will surge into the streets again as they did in June.

In recent videos I have seen crowds throw money at the Basiji and call them mercenaries. I have seen Basiji run away from stone-throwing protesters. This is what must happen on a larger scale, if violence is to be avoided. The Basiji must lose heart at the sight of the ever-growing crowd. They must feel that they can do nothing to deter you. Once the Basiji begin to defect, or stay home, the final phase begins. There will only be the Revolutionary Guards to keep order. When that moment comes, there may be terrible violence. They may shoot rather than retreat.

You must do all that you can to keep to the schedule, to make each protest larger than the last, to be non-violent and united in your goal of civil rights. You can hope the Guards do not shoot when the time comes. My point is, the time is coming, and cannot be delayed.

I am happy to help and advise further, if you know any organizers who can be reached by e-mail.

Another possible way of looking at this phenomena is THE TIPPING POINT (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tipping_Point).

Your talk about fractals reminded me of this piece I wrote http://revmagdalen.blogspot.com/2009/11/parable-of-one-person.html where I talk about a similar thing, so neat to see another view of this idea!

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