NOTE: This is a live-blog article in which updates are being made in real-time as information comes in. To read this in chronological order, read from the bottom up.

Another picture showing the massive crowd (Times Online):

[UPDATE - 1:35PM Tehran Time]

From Twitter user korshid3 pictures of the crowd of mourners and massive procession:

[UPDATE - 1:18PM Tehran Time]

The first three videos of mourners in Qom. Anti-government chants can be heard. One chant, “He who was the cheater, ripped the picture!” They are basically saying that the government that cheated in the presidential election is responsible for ripping Khomeini’s picture–a swipe at the regime after state media showed an image of Ayatollah Khomeini being torn (a taboo in Iran) and tried to blame it on opposition protesters.

[UPDATE - 12:41PM Tehran Time]

From Mahdi Saharkhiz’s blog, the first picture out of Qom today, showing masses of people attending the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri:

[UPDATE - 10:16AM Tehran Time]

The following is a live-blog direct from Qom, in Farsi:

Live-blog of Montazeri Day of Mourning in Qom.

[UPDATE - 9:43AM Tehran Time]

People chanting “Montazeri your path will be following even if the dictator rains bullets on us.”

[UPDATE - 9:31AM Tehran Time]

Reports are coming in of many tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people gathering in Qom. The following video shows Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s body in his home (via Mehdi Saharkhiz):

[UPDATE - 12:45AM Tehran Time]

Another video from Arak University, people singing “Yare Dabestani” and “Ey Iran”:

[UPDATE - 12:23AM Tehran Time]

Mehdi Saharkhiz posted several videos showing street protests, night chants and cars honking. Chanting against Seyyed Ali (Khamenei) can be heard. One chant, “The walls are covered in blood. Seyyed Ali is falling!”

[UPDATE - 11:42PM Tehran Time]

From Rahesabz (source):

KHAMENEI ASKS ALLAH TO “FORGIVE” MONTAZERI

Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei extended his condolences for the death of Shia Source of Emulation Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri

Ayatollah Khamenei described Ayatollah Montazeri as “a well-versed jurist and a prominent master”, adding that “many disciples have benefited greatly from him.”

“Ayatollah Montazeri spent a long period of his life serving the late founder of the Islamic Revolution and made many efforts and suffered much hardship for advancing this cause,” he said. “Toward the end of the Imam’s life there came a time of a great and dangerous test and I ask God in all his compassion to forgive him [Montazeri for failing that test] and consider his [Montazeri's] earthly struggles as a punishment (collateral) for that [failed test].”

By test, Ayatollah Khamenei was referring to the incident that resulted in the removal of Ayatollah Montazeri from his position as the successor to Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and subsequent exile. Montazeri challenged the notion of the Rule of the Just Jurisprudent, which is the foundation of the lifetime rule of one cleric as the Leader of Iran.

[UPDATE - 11:12PM Tehran Time]

People in Iran marching, chanting “Montazeri is alive! Forever he is our Marja!”

[UPDATE - 11:02PM Tehran Time]

Unconfirmed reports saying Mousavi has arrived at Montazeri’s home in Qom.

[UPDATE - 11:01PM Tehran Time]

Another video from Arak University:

[UPDATE - 22:44PM Tehran Time]

Another video showing protesters in Arak University:

[UPDATE - 10:22AM Tehran Time]

Opposition leaders Mousavi and Karroubi have declared a day of national mourning. From Mousavi’s Facebook:

Following the announcements made by a number of Grand Ayatollahs inviting public to mourn the departure of the great shia scholar and noble combatant, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, in a joint statement Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi declared Monday to be a national mourning day and invited the grieving public to at…tend Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s funeral which will be held tomorrow (Monday Dec 21st).

Omid Habibinia reports that demonstations are taking place all over the country.

Another video from Ayatollah Montazeri’s hometown:

[UPDATE - 4:56PM Tehran Time]

Reports are being made that Iran’s state news agencies are disrespecting Ayatollah Montazeri by not using his title when referring to him. They are basically reporting that he died and that’s it.

The regime appears to be attempting to downplay the event, but there are already calls being made for daily mournings every day until Ashura. The situation has the potential to become volatile.

–

Sharif University mourning procession for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri:

[UPDATE - 3:49PM Tehran Time]

Quick Opinion: As I hinted at in my initial report on Montazeri’s death (first entry at the bottom of the page), this does not bode well for the hardline regime in Iran headed by Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Khamenei’s complicity (if not downright responsibility) in the Grand Ayatollah’s house-arrest and imprisonment for years, along with the constant stream of government propoganda aimed against him in an attempt to paint Montazeri as an “old fool” is plainly obvious to the majority of the Iranian people. He is known as the insider who tried to confront the excesses of the regime during the tenures of Khomeini as Supreme Leader and Khamenei as President.

With six months of continuous pressure from the opposition and the people’s movement (calling itself the green movement) that sprung up and became cohesive during the campaign of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi (and following the rigged election) the timing could simply not be worse for the regime. Montazeri has died during the third day of Moharram, a time where Shiite Muslims mourn the death by murder of the revered Imam Hossein.

One of the predominant slogans of the the protest movement in the past 6 months has been, “Ya Hossein! Mir Hossein,” a deliberate association of Mir Hossein Mousavi with Imam Hossein (along with all of the connotations that go with the association).

Protesters were already planning rallies, expected to be large, for the 10th day of Moharram, called Ashura (on December 27th). Such rallies would already have been difficult to stop or even try to control by the regime because of the signficance of Moharram. It would be a taboo to attack mourners of the revered Imam Hossein. Yet the regime has been making constant threats to the leaders of the movement and their families even as they have attempted to round up student leaders since the Student’s Day protests of December 7th (16th of Azar) and the daily subsequent protests.

Green movement supporters were already were reportedly planning to ignore the threats. Khamenei had made similar threats in June, threats which he followed-up on via the unleashing of the Basij, IRGC and mercenary squads on the peaceful protesters. But the protest movement has continued to adapt and show itself to be a strong, difficult to crush force. This has given the movement tremendous momentum, rendering the threats of the government largely ineffective.

Now, with the passing of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, there will almost certainly be many more who will join the ranks of protesters on Ashura–a day which has the potential of dealing a huge blow to the faltering regime.

As I stated earlier, the stakes have gone higher (much, much higher).

[UPDATE - 3:38PM Tehran Time]

Another video showing a crowded procession, people chanting “Montazeri congratulations on your freedom,” and “your path will continue to be followed.”

[UPDATE - 3:25PM Tehran Time]

Unconfirmed reports are coming in that many thousands of people are converging on Ayatollah Montazeri’s home in Najafabad.

MikVerbrugge reports that opposition leader Mehdi Karoubi is on route to the residence of Ayatollah Montazeri, and may in fact already have arrived.

Mehdi Saharkhiz has posted several pictures showing Ayatollah Montazeri’s hometown of Najafabad being virtually shut down in his honor (source):

[UPDATE - 3:04PM Tehran Time]

Video from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s hometown of Najafabad showing people chanting:

“Montazeri congratulations on your freedom!”, an acknowledgement and show of awareness for his home-imprisonment by the hand regime for years.

And, “Montazeri, your path will still be followed!”, meaning they will continue along the path of seeking freedom and justice, which Montazeri criticized the regime for not delivering to the people of Iran.

[UPDATE - 2:45PM Tehran Time]

The first videos are coming out of Iran of people chanting and mourning for Ayatollah Montazeri, from Elm O Sanat University:

“Today is a day of Mourning!”:

“Montazeri is alive!”

And a picture from the procession at Elm O Sanat University.

[UPDATE - 1:55PM Tehran Time]

Lara Setrakian of ABCNews has confirmed on her Twitter page that thousands rally to mourn Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in Iran…

[UPDATE - 1:15PM Tehran Time]

Zahra Rahnavard’s (wife of Iranian government opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi) Facebook page just posted the following report:

Zahra Rahnavard زهرا رهنورد According to ParlemanNews a great number of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s followers and devotees are moving toward his home in the holy city of Qom to pay their respect. After the announcement of the sad news of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s passing, many of his followers and devotees have gathered in his home as well as some of the senior religious figures including Grand Ayatollahs Mousavi-Ardebili, Shobeiri-Zanjani, Bayat-Zanjani, Saanei and Amini. Followers of this senior religious figure are moving toward his home in the holy city of Qom from Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Najaf-Abad and other cities.

BREAKING NEWS:

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has passed away, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The circumstances surrounding his death are unknown at this time.

Ayatollah Montazeri was slated by Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, to succeed him as Iran’s Supreme Leader, but he had a falling out with Khomeini due the mass execution of dissidents that took place in during the late 80’s, following the Iran-Iraq War.

Ayatollah Montazeri was placed under house arrest for years, but because of his religious and revolutionary credentials the regime couldn’t completely silence him.

Following the rigged presidential election in June of 2009, Ayatollah Montazeri issued multiple statements in support of the people’s quest to have their rights respected. He was also very critical of the Khamenei/Ahmadinejad/IRGC coup government.

From Payvand.com:

Ayatollah Montazeri, the most outspoken critic of the Iranian government condemned what he called the “strategic use” of tearing Ayatollah Khomeini’s picture by the establishment. “By doing this you are defaming him (Ayatollah Khomeini) and saying that people would tear Imam Khomeini’s picture. If anything, you should have kept it silent! “he maintained.

Ayatollah Montazeri who was one of the leaders of the 1979 Iranian Revolution along with the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, told his Islamic class: “The late Ayatollah Khomeini truly served this country; the Revolution was his doing and he was the leader of the Revolution. However, he wasn’t a saint and he also made some mistakes.”

Montazeri has been very vocal in supporting the Green Movement for freedom and human rights in Iran. His recent statement blamed the regime for the tearing of Khomeini’s picture, and the airing of it it public, and said “…he wasn’t a saint and he also made some mistakes.”

Criticizing the regime and also breaking the taboo of mildly criticizing Khomeini in one statement.

Considering that Khamenei’s regime is reeling from six months of sustained anti-regime protests, and that they have been issuing numerous shrill threats against Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami and other leaders of the movement, the timing of Ayatollah Montazeri’s death is very suspect.

Although the cause of his death is not known at this time, given the extreme lack of credibility that the regime in Iran now possesses, as Josh Shahryar astutely pointed out:

If there is no independent autopsy, I DO NOT believe Ayat. Montazeri died of natural causes #IranElection

And neither do I.

It is a shame that Ayatollah Montazeri passed without getting to see the realization of a free Iran.

It may be too soon to speculate, but I believe his death, whether by nature or by the design of his enemies, will galvanize the Iranian people further in their animosity towards the barbaric regime that has been beating, torturing, raping, and killing them. The Green Movement is planning large rallies during the Moharram holy day of Ashura…

I will follow the story closely and report on any developments.

Sadness to me is the happiest time
When a shining city rises from the ruins of my drunken mind
Those times when I’m silent and still as the earth,
The thunder of my roar is heard across the universe.

Rumi

It has now been almost six months since those fateful days in June when the people of Iran shattered the false image that the government of Iran had cast of them–that stark image of women clad head-to-toe in black chadors, and bearded zealous men punching their fists into the air chanting slogans of death to the world and holding Americans hostage. Six months ago, the blatant rigging of the presidential election in Iran in the favor of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, galvanized the people after thirty years of forced, fear-induced slumber to stand up for themselves and assert their will. The world saw a new image of Iran–that of vibrant, intelligent, modern and dignified people, young and old, hand-in-hand, peacefully asserting themselves.

Millions of people bravely entered the streets and in a peaceful, dignified manner they asked, “Where is my vote?” And they received an answer in the form of brutal, barbaric, hate-filled violence. The so-called “supreme leader”, Khamenei, basically said that if the people dared question the results of the election again via street protests, they would pay a heavy price. In his Friday prayer speech on June 19, Khamenei basically intoned that anyone who questioned the results of the election would be considered an enemy and dealt with accordingly. In the lingo of the Islamic Republic, this is akin to a mafia don threatening to kill anyone who questions him and it serves as a green light to his brain-washed goon squads that it’s okay to violently crack down on the people.

But the people ignored him and continued their protests. Again and again, they have demonstrated their resistance to tyranny in a way that every human being who values freedom and human dignity can be proud of. And we have repeatedly seen the regime respond with sickening disregard for the most basic human rights.

TIME has listed the Iranian protesters as a candidate for TIME Person of the Year. You can even vote for 2009’s TIME Person of the Year here.

We all saw the brutal murder of Neda Agha Soltan, when she was shot in the chest by a Basij militia goon. The look in her eyes as she passed is seared into our collective memories. We will never forget it.

So many others have been beaten, tortured, raped, and even killed. And their families have been threatened with detention and violence if they voice any complaint, or if they mourn publicly.

Every single Iranian has felt the talons of this regime tearing into their being in one way or another. Of course, the regime has its supporters and proponents. People who are willing to compromise their dignity as human beings for recognition, money and hand-outs from the regime. Sycophants essentially. But the vast majority of Iranians know that they are being held hostage by this regime. The majority of Iranians know that the regime does not represent Iranian interests. The majority of Iranians feel their country and culture are on the brink of destruction by a group of zealous islamists and their mercenaries who don’t even want to acknowledge that Iran has centuries of proud history before Islam.

Let’s be clear about something right here and right now: the movement that is called the Green Movement in Iran, is the Iranian people! The Green Movement belongs to all Iranians who stand for fundamental human rights and dignity. The Green Movement, at is core, wants the same thing that all free peoples have: freedom, dignity, respect and representative government. It is not ideological. It is at its heart, a civil rights movement.

It has been interesting for me to see how every time there is a break between street protests, people start to doubt the veracity and viability of the movement. This is understandable. There is so much pent up energy in the movement. People are literally itching for more action, and when it is not as visible as what we saw in the initial weeks after the election, with millions in the streets, then they start asking whether the movement has died down. Rest assured: the movement has not died down. It is alive and well and moving surely and steadily towards a free Iran that respects and enshrines the civil rights of its citizens.

In less than two days, on December the 7th (16th of Azar in Iran) we will see once again that the people are resisting the regime on National Student’s Day. Students inside Iran are planning major protests throughout the country. We will inevitably see the mainstream media outlets catch onto what is happening too late, with pundits and commentators acting surprised that the movement is still alive.

I will attempt to shed some light on the nature of the movement.

The Green Movement is different from what most people living in free nations associate with a movement. It is not organized in the way that a political party or group with centralized organization and leadership is organized. Such organization is not possible because of the repressive machine of the Islamic Republic. The movement is highly decentralized, and led from the bottom up rather than from the top down.

The Green Movement is fractal in nature.

What is a fractal? Wikipedia states:

A fractal is “a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be split into parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole,” a property called self-similarity.

Stemming from Chaos Theory:

An object whose irregularity is constant over different scales (“self-similarity”) is a fractal…

Nature produces examples of fractals in abundance. One example is a fern plant:

(Source)

Notice how each “leaf” of the fern looks similar to the whole, but each one is slightly different. This is what is meant by “self-similarity.” And notice how each leaf has its own leaves, each looking similar to the parent leaf, which looks similar to the larger leaf. The larger fern leaf is composed of self-similar leaves that are composed of self-similar leaves, and so on.

The human race is fractal. Each person has similarities in many ways to every other person, but each of us is unique and different in myriad ways.

Society is fractal. Each person belongs to a group of friends, possibly a group of work colleagues, different groups with people that share a common interest, and so on. And each individual, each group becomes a part of the whole of society. Think back to the fern and you get the picture.

Without getting too deeply into the mathematics behind Chaos Theory and fractals, suffice it to say that very simple formulas, in a feedback loop, lead to very complex fractal patterns. In dynamic systems, minor variations in initial conditions can cause vast changes in how the system behaves, making the system unpredictable beyond a certain point. This is also known as the Butterfly Effect. The concept is that a butterfly can flap its wings (the initial condition) in one location and this can lead to a tornado somewhere. This is what makes weather unpredictable beyond a few days. This is also what makes the Green Movement both unpredictable and powerful. Think about it. Every single individual that comprises the movement has the potential to influence its direction.

I have seen this first-hand, and will write about it in the future, but suffice it to say that because of the totalitarian nature of regime via its obsessive focus on keeping power at all costs, the people of Iran have had so few options and tools at their disposal to coordinate and communicate freely, that once they found the means to do so the regime has been in serious trouble. This is because the means for communicating, the means for coordinating, and the means for getting the message out to the world fell into the hands of individuals on the ground, via a combination of technologies and creative uses of these technologies that the regime simply cannot control, let alone understand. Mobile phones that can capture video and pictures, combined with the Internet via social networks and websites like Twitter, Facebook and Youtube, were used by the people to capture in real-time the abuses of the regime as it cracked down on the people.

The regime has always relied on its ability to prevent real news from getting out to the world to prevent the story of Iran from being told. They had the world convinced for the most part that Iranian people support their worldview. They had everyone frightened to even think it was possible to dislodge their tyranny. The people of Iran didn’t know how vast the opposition within Iran to this horrible government was.

It took a blatant, obvious lie to bring the people to the realization that they were all together in opposition to the regime. That was the catalyst that unleashed thirty years of pent-up energy and frustration. It was a big-bang, “AHA!” moment for the people of Iran and the world.

It was the awakening of the world to the real Iran and the awakening of the people of Iran to their own power.

It was the awakening of what we call the Green Movement. The moment in which people declared, in unison:

“NO! NOT THIS TIME! NEVER AGAIN!”

Now for a little bit of theory…

All matter that exists is energy.

Consciousness is a form of reflection, and has the ability to direct energy to exert force. This can be thought of as conscious energy.

Conscious beings or entitites are attracted to other conscious beings with thoughts and reflections that are similar to their own, because together multiple conscious beings can amplify the strength of those thoughts and reflections.

In other words, united conscious beings can direct conscious energy together with more strength and force then separated conscious being. But there will always be slight differences in the reflections and thoughts of each of the entities that form the whole or group. This means that conscious beings (entities) are self-similar, but different. They are fractal.

All entities are attempting to define and understand themselves and the universe around them. All conscious reflections are fractal.

Self-aware entities are essentially fractal reflections of entities that exist higher up in scale (such as a group of individuals). The relationship between entities and entities higher or lower in scale is symbiotic. If the higher entity’s reflected values are in harmony with the lower entity’s, the higher entity can be said to be a strong one, with a high level of autonomy. This can be seen in the real world in the case of a government that is supported by the people because it reflects their values. Such a government has a high level of autonomy because the people support it. It basically gets its autonomy from the people in this sense. It can be confident in its actions because the actions it takes are in line with the values of the people.

If, on the other hand, the higher entity’s reflected values are not in harmony with the lower entity’s, there is more variability in values and less autonomy of the higher entity. In such a case you have a less cohesive higher entity. This can be seen in the case of a government (higher entity) that does not support or reflect the values of the people it governs (lower entity). Obviously in this case, the government does not have a high degree of autonomy. It is stymied or restricted in its actions because the actions wants to take are not in line with the values of its people. It can attempt to reflect its own values by taking actions against the wishes of the people, but it does so at a very heavy cost because it is going against the grain.

The more the actions of such a government diverge from the values of its people, the higher the likelihood of rebellion in different forms. As this rebellion builds up, if the government wants to continue taking actions that don’t mesh with the values of the people, the more it needs to rely on repression, brutality and the application of force to keep control. But these measures cause the people to become even more estranged from such a government, so a vicious cycle forms that leads to a schism or separation between the government and the people. A united nation forms multiple entities. You have multiple-personality disorder on a national scale in such an instance.

This is what happened on that fateful day, June 12th, 2009, when the government discarded the last vestige of its covenant with the people of Iran. A vast entity in opposition to the oppressive regime came together and found its voice.  The Green Movement.

The thunder of their roar echoed across the universe.

So how can the Green Movement, an entity that has a high degree of variability in the views and values of its constituents, an entity with a leadership (Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami, Montazeri et. al.) that does not have a great degree autonomy (for a number of reasons) defeat the current leaders of the Islamic Republic, an entity that has for thirty years projected the illusion of being more cohesive and monolithic, with a (perceived) strong centralized leadership?

How for the past thirty years has this government and its paid supporters and mercenaries controlled the entire population of Iran? How can such a government attempt to counter the millions that comprise the Green Movement?

The answers to these questions can be found in the concept of cohesion.

How similar are the reflections, thoughts, values of each person to his/her counterparts in the greater entity (nation, movement, etc.)? How similar are the values of each member of the Green Movement? The answer to this question equals the level of cohesion in the group. If the level of cohesion is low then the action potential is low for the group (the movement). If the level of cohesion is high then the action potential is high.

So the answer to how an entity like the current government of Iran, the current leaders of the Islamic Republic, can control the people of Iran and the Green movement is that it has to disrupt the cohesion of the movement. In fact, the only way the Islamic Republic can control the people of Iran or the Green Movement is by disrupting and weakening the cohesion.

It’s critical to understand the significance of this, because the action potential of an entity can be instantiated into real action: real, decisive, effective, forceful action! This is what happened when we all realized that the election was brazenly stolen before our eyes. It was a moment of collective shock that triggered the cumulative action potentials of the Iranian people into one very powerful force in the form of millions of peaceful protesters in the streets asking “Where is my vote?”. That moment was a moment of crystalline cohesion between the majority of the individuals that comprise the nation of Iran. That cohesion amplified our collective action potential into a massive outpouring of righteous action. This action was a massive blow to the regime, a blow it is still trying to recover from.

Cohesion is an action-potential multiplier.

What does all of this mean for the Green Movement? What are the aspects and characteristics of the Green Movement that provide it with cohesion, thereby making it a very active, powerful force that will bring about change?

If cohesion is so important, then we know that the movement must amplify its cohesion, so we need to understand those factors that contribute to strong cohesion. Obviously if everyone decided to pour out into the streets and risk life and limb to bring down the regime it would happen. But at what cost? We saw after the Shah was brought down that what can come after the ousting of an existing government can be terrible. We have seen what has happened in Afghanistan and Iraq when their governments were brought down by external intervention. The peoples of both those states have suffered extremely tragic losses in the deaths of so many of their people and in the loss of so much of their national treasure. While obviously the regime uses the fear of violence against its citizens to disrupt the cohesion of its citizens, there is also a genuine fear in the people of Iran, based on past experience, for the unknown that will come after their government falls. This kind of sudden change in Iran is not what the people want. At least they appear to want to change things without sudden, unstable upheaval that can lead to something worse.

What can the people do to amplify their cohesion? The green movement is tailor-made to be cohesive despite the regime’s attempts to disrupt this cohesion. This is what the people that doubt the Green Movement’s potential, or think that the movement is leaderless or weak don’t understand.

The Green Movement is based around the shared frustrations of all of the Iranian people. When there is no cohesion between the values of a people and their government, then it is very safe to say that the government is imposing itself on those people. This is exactly the situation in Iran. What you have is not one cohesive entity. What you have is two entities, one imposing itself on the other by force.

The regime is a symbiote to Iran, a bloodsucking symbiote that threatens to kill the entire nation if the people attempt to dislodge it. It has declared itself to be the enemy of the people.

The supporters of the Islamic Republic share certain values to a high degree of cohesion. They also have a complete monopoly on weapons and the ability to inflict violence readily and easily. They also have had, until recently, a monopoly on another very important tool needed for cohesion, the ability to communicate a message rapidly to the majority of the people via television and radio communications.

Of course the Iranian people have gotten around this problem in different ways. They get different views from the official views of the Islamic Republic via satellite and radio broadcasts from the outside, but these are mostly one-way mediums. The variable that shocked everyone when it manifested itself after the rigged June 12 election was the Internet and social networking mediums of communication. Nobody could have predicted the cohesion that these new Internet-powered mediums and the tools they provide would give the Iranian people. Because the government of Iran tries to disrupt the cohesion of the opposition (the entire population of Iran), the people have to be creative in forming their own cohesion. This is how, all of the sudden, all of the disparate entities (people, groups, NGOs, political affiliations, rich, poor, young, old, everyone) contributed to the awakening and formation of the entity of great force called the Green Movement.

It sprung up from the ground via people who shared a common disgust for what happened, went into the streets to protest peacefully, and witnessed, in unision, and in the view of the entire world, the Islamic Republic crackdown and suppress them. They used cell phones to take pictures and film clips of what was going on. These were uploaded to the Internet via social networks and Web 2.0 tools like Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube. These were picked up via the mainstream international media and broadcast virtually live to the world.

Via the social networks, telephone, e-mail and other means, people communicated this phenomenon back to the ground level in Iran, and via broadcasts from the outside captured by satellite dishes on the rooftops of homes, people in Iran saw what was being done to them, saw their own people out in masses in the streets, saw that the world is aware of what is going on and realized their shared collective rage. This led to the realization that millions of them shared collective values and vision. This was the birth of the Green Movement. The entity became self-aware, but it did so in every single person who took any action in opposition to the repressive regime, however small. Everyone took part in they own ways, inside and outside of Iran, and their cumulative efforts was a gut punch to the regime.

Of course the regime still holds a monopoly on force and communications internally, so they used these with great zeal to suppress the people. Their strategy is to try to make people think once again that they can’t coordinate, they can’t resist. The regime will seek to violently disrupt the cohesion of the people. But unfortunately for them, the people have their own cohesion amplifiers in their social networks. I’m not just talking about the tools like Twitter and Facebook. I’m talking about the actual social connections that these tools and others helped to strengthen. The Green Movement has tremendous cohesion for the following reasons:

(1) We all saw and felt our collective power – so we are all aware that we are together and that we are powerful. This is very evident from the protests in which people in the thousands marched, chanting “Natarseed, Natarseed, Mah hameh bah ham hasteem!” (Don’t be afraid, we are all in this together!) This awareness is still very strong and active (high cohesion causing high action potential).

(2) We share very strong fundamental common goals. What makes us very unique though is that because we are a horizontally powered group where anyone can lead in their own way, and where everyone is taking whatever action that they can, we have a high degree of dispersion in our values. Or at least we have a lot of different beliefs and values, but at our core because of the Islamic Republic’s massive repression over thirty years, we have internalized some very strong values that we now know that we all share individually, and as a group. Our fear is lessened and diminished because we know that we share these values. These are freedom of expression, separation of religion from governance, innocent until proven guilty, love, compassion, music, beauty, culture and so many others. We know we are Iranian. That is a frequency of vibration that is very strong when you are a part of it. We also know what we DON’T want. We don’t want to use violence to obtain our objectives. We demand respect. That is what we are. This is who we are. This makes us strong.

(3) We have a strategy to keep amplifying our cohesion, and it is critical that we keep using it: Co-opt the regime’s own symbols and ceremonies. The color green. Qods Day. Anniversary of the Hostage Taking. Student’s Day. The nuclear program, etc. We can challenge them by usurping and using all of their symbols for our own cause.

(4) We are the government of ourselves. This is where Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami and others come in. They have ties to this regime that makes it hard for the regime to go after them, and so long as they reflect our values back to us, we can reflect it back to them, amplifying the cohesion of the movement. Of course, they will diverge on some of the fundamental demands of the green movement at least publicly, and possibly in their own hearts, but this does not matter very much at least for now. Their success is contingent upon the people’s success more than the other way around. Because of the bottom-up and distributed organization and base of power that is the social network and fabric of the Green Movement, those who speak for the regime within the power structure of the Islamic Republic will only be effective insofar as they align themselves with the most important demands of the movement.

(5) Our strongest cohesion amplifier is this: we have a culture that dates back 2500 years to the time of Cyrus the Great. We have been Iranian for 25 centuries, with ceremonies and culture that date back this far. To this date, no force has been able to take this away from us. This thirty-year-old anomaly will be no different.

We are strong because we are cohesive in a way that the regime cannot control even if they have any chance of understanding it. We have higher cohesion and we have greater action potential and numbers. We are developing immunity against the measures the regime uses against us.

We are calm. We are assertive. We are distributed. We are individual and independent, and united. Every single cell that is the Iranian people, every single person, is a power center with the ability to tap into and contribute to the social network, reflecting and propagating its values in their daily actions and bravery. This is what makes us strong, and in the strong opinion of this author, this is what will ultimately lead us to the society that we want.

We are Iran.

This was reported by an inside source, September 21, 2009

Rafsanjani incorporated [into an agreed upon truce with Khamenei] reformist agendas such as re-establishment of Khatami’s standing and dignity, avoidance of further public attacks against him and other reformists, a return to mutual respect, and curbing of coup-like behavior of Sepah [IRGC]. In exchange, [the Assembly of] Experts meeting will be rather tame. [The Assembly of Experts is a governing body in the Islamic Republic with the power to supervise the performance of the Supreme Leader (as well as the power to remove him)]. But will be hearing some reformists [speak]. It [the Assembly] will produce “suggestions” as [to] a path forward, a few reminders of values, the importance of constitutional law, and the vote of people expressing their wishes. A major part of the truce is [the] traditionalists regaining power. [The traditionalists are a group of moderate conservatives that Rafsanjani is a part of, separate from the coup leaders and more hardline elements].

If all goes well, Ahmadinejad will embarrass Iran in New York [during the United Nations General Assembly meeting], which would help even more in swaying the Supreme Leader towards a gradual path to dismantling Ahmadinejad’s cabinet.

However, it seems the sermon [that Khamenei held in which he tried to moderate his tone and make concessions to the traditionalists] didn’t address all points agreed upon [in the truce], snubbing Rafsanjani and Nateq-Nouri. Rafsanjani seems very upset, especially as pressure of the Marja [senior Shia religious scholars] starts weighing on him, which could present him with a day of “either with the Marja or the regime” reckoning.

Nateq-Nouri and Rafsanjani are trying to curb the crisis, and are very concerned with a popular movement detached from reformists or Mousavi and Karoubi. It seems that the masses are simply against the regime.

There are shock-waves and shivers going through the ranks of principlists, three major factions of which are on the verge of breaking up. It looks like the principlists don’t really feel like keeping Ahmadinejad’s faction within their ranks.

Many traditional conservatives, progressive conservatives and some opportunist hard-liners don’t believe Khamenei can do anything to regain the people’s trust. This fuels internal fights.

Nothing can be predicted from here on.

Originally posted in MikVerbrugge’s Blog

The following Q&A is between INN contributor MikVerbrugge (Mehrzad Vafa) and an insider source with which he is in communication. Following this Q&A is a brief analysis by an analyst that has been providing Iran News Now with insightful information ever since the rigged June 12 elections (preferring to remain anonymous).

Insider Opinion: Back to square one.

Conversation with an insider, September 20th 2009

What is your opinion on what happened at today’s sermon?

At today’s sermon there was Rafsanjani, Nateq-Nouri, S. Larijani, H. Khomeini & Dori Najafabadi on one side, Ahmadinejad, A. Khatami, Janati flanked by Shahroudi on the other side. Ejei was sitting next to Rafsanjani. Today’s show of force of Traditionalists was remarkable, and Coup’s side wasn’t impressive. Rafsanjani got his way. All confessions about him & his family & friends are now void & illegal, which clears the way to go for the throats of a few coup leaders. At the same time, it also voided all evidence against Mousavi, Khatami, Karroubi with regards to velvet revolution allegations. But it also renders Karroubi’s accusations void. It looks like the Leader knows his days are numbered & is back to negotiating and compromises.

(see MikeVerbrugge’s previous twitblogs/tumblr blogs for details on earlier negotiations)
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/MikVerbrugge
Tumblr: http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/

But isn’t it too late?

I’m not sure who would want that. There’s going to be a lot of talks in the next few days. In light of Banisadr’s very frank message regarding Sazegara, who he deals with and what position he is seeking, all non-coup factions have to really think hard. Rafsanjani’s way might be more in the interest of the nation however, all [in the coalition] will need to reassess and wait to get details of the new shift, before they can decide whether they go with it, and they probably won’t give in without getting their issues embedded in a deal & get some concessions. So far it looks like it would mean Rafsanjani & Nateq-Nouri keeping on doing what they do to undermine & limit Ahmadinejad, while Mousavi is allowed to slowly & orderly move his opposition, tamed & totally loyal to the regime, and make it viable for next Majlis election. Back to Square One…

My question is: What does Khamenei have to offer to the Marjas, after pushing them around for months and the Fitr disaster showing they are all against him?

Brief Analysis by Iran News Now Analyst

This is an interesting bit of information and analysis by MikVerbrugge’s source. Although I am not aware of Banisadr’s message to Sazegara, there are definitely various pressure points in the regime now that are close to breaking point. It is not suprising that the traditionalists or principalists close to Rafsanjani feel like they may have the upper hand now. However, Rafsanjani’s power is limited because he does not appear to be willing to move on deposing Khamenei. Without a move to depose of Khamenei as leader he will not be able to unseat Ahmadinejad or sufficiently weaken his influence in the government to prevent the Hojjatieh from solidifying their hold on the government. Of course a move by Rafsanjani to depose of Khamenei means that one of the pillars of the regime, the concept of Supreme Leader, will most likely be irrevocably damaged. I don’t think Rafsanjani wants this because it would mean the entire system would probably collapse, bringing him down with it.

So if indeed a deal is in the works, it would need to account for the one factor that nobody in the regime appears able to control, not even the reformists. That element is obviously the realization by a large segment of the population (if not the vast majority) that the time to change this regime is now. If you recall, the 18th of Tir uprising was not organized by the leaders of the reform movement. It was loosely organized by the social network that has formed around them that calls itself the green movement. While the leaders of the reformists have significant influence on this movement, they do not command it as far as I can assess. This social network has shown that it can disseminate information quickly. It has shown that it is capable of defying the orders of the regime and acting like a huge thorn in its side. The regime’s entire foundation is based on various lies that they have been able to force down the throats of those that are not considered “Khodi” (outsiders of the inner circle of power) through the instruments of terror and violence at their disposal. This has been the case ever since so-called students stormed the American embassy in the beginning of the revolution, in 1979. There has always been this implicit threat that if you stand against this government in any way, you will be tortured, raped or killed. This is not new. The people of Iran know this. What IS new is the fact that they have successfully challenged this regime for three months now. This one fact is now engrained in people’s hearts and knowledge. And this knowledge is now the foundation of the green movement. Why is this important? Because the movement is a social movement, the basic ideals that it espouses are, for the most part, agreed to by every individual in the movement. This means that the leaders are not as important because there will be constant renewal of leaders should the current ones be arrested, killed, or disappear, or even change their minds in anyway. Again, remember 18th of Tir and you’ll understand what I’m getting at.

In short, it is great that Khamenei feels vulnerable and is willing to wheel and deal. In my opinion, it is most likely too late for him in the long run. It is also good that Rafsanjani is (possibly) back in a more influential role. All of the above is good for Iran, because it means that the regime has no choice but to make concessions, both internally within the “Khodi” and to the outsiders. The coup makers are sweating now, but don’t count them out. They still wield lethal force, and they are willing to use it.

In the current state, it looks to me like we have entered into a long period of attrition–a cold war of sorts–between the following forces: Khamenei and his inner circle, Rafsanjani and the traditionalists and principalists, The IRGC leadership, the coup makers, and finally (and importantly) the green movement. In the short term, the perturbations in the regime are chaotic and the tea leaves are somewhat hard to read, but the regime is in trouble. It may indeed be back to square one, for the moment, but that square is damaged badly. The forces that were unleashed in the past three months are still loose. I am going into pure conjecture now, but my feeling is that equilibrium is far from being established for this regime. Ahmadinejad’s appearance at the U.N. and how that goes for him will have further ramifications for his government and the Islamic Republic system. The regime can’t block information coming in or going out now, so a show of massive protests against him in New York will be very embarrassing for him, but even more so for Khamenei.

We are in uncharted territory now.

In Parts 1 and 2 of our Iran’s Power Brokers series we covered the Supreme Leaders, Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei. Part 3 covers a man named Hashemi Rafsanjani, also aptly referred to by many as Kouseh, Shark in Farsi (Persian). This is not an exhaustive account of all of Rafsanjani’s actions during the span of the Islamic Republic’s 30 years worth of horrific rule over Iran, but I hope to capture the essence of who the man is in this article.

Rafsanjani has been one of the central players in the Islamic Republic of Iran since its founding, and has had a love-hate (mostly hate) relationship with the current Supreme Leader, Khamenei since the early days. Ironically, he is one of the key people responsible for the promotion of Khamenei to the position of Supreme Leader after the death of Khomeini. The irony lies in the fact that ever since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “defeated” Rafsanjani during the 2005 presidential elections, Khamenei has looked the other way (to say the least) as Ahmadinejad, and forces loyal to him within the maze of power structures that is the Islamic Republic, have systematically undermined Rafsanjani. The culmination of this was during the brief but dramatic run-up to the June 12, 2009 presidential elections, which ended in a rigged victory for Ahmadinejad and led to a widespread, popular protest and uprising in Iran that has continued to this day (and is far from over). While it was well-known by Iran watchers that there was no love lost between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad, it became a public spat when, during unprecedented televised debates between Ahmadinejad and his primary challenger, Mir Hussein Mousavi (a reformist and ally of former President Khatami), Ahmadinejad accused Rafsanjani and his family of corruption.

Rafsanjani was incensed by the accusations. They are probably true, as corruption runs rampant in the Islamic Republic, but the corruption itself is actually not very relevant. Everyone knows that most of the power players in the system engage in corrupt practices of all kinds. What is relevant is that when Rafsanjani publicly asked Khamenei to get Ahmadinejad to retract his accusations, Khamenei ignored him.

Sine the June 12 elections a power struggle has been playing out in Iran, both in the circles of the so-called elite (the politicians, clerics and various elements of the IRGC) and on the streets, where the people have repeatedly poured out in the millions to express their discontent over a both the rigging of the elections and the system that for thirty years has enslaved and abused them.

Rafsanjani has been playing the game cautiously. On the one hand, as a founding member of the establishment, he has huge vested interests in keeping the Islamic Republic system intact. But on the other hand, his years of Machiavellian politicking, conniving, and hoarding of wealth have left him vulnerable to the likes of Ahmadinejad and his cabal of supporters, including a shadowy cleric by the name of Mesbah Yazdi, rumored to be the head of an even more shadowy, cult-like group called the Hojjatieh. The Hojjatieh believe that the end days are near, and that soon the hidden, twelfth Imam will show up to lead all true believers of Islam to victory in a war against infidels. Let’s just say they are an unsavory bunch, and they are jockeying for power. Ahmadinejad is their man. It is likely that one of their goals is to get one of their own into the position of Supreme Leader. As Chair of the Assembly of Experts, Rafsanjani is positioned to be a huge thorn in their side when the time comes to replace Khamenei with a new leader. They also don’t like the fact that he backed Mousavi in the recent elections. So Rafsanjani is in trouble because, at least for now Khamenei is siding with Ahmadinejad, and the IRGC (the Islamic Republican Guard Corps) is backing this alliance.

How things play out remains to be seen, but Rafsanjani’s influence relies heavily on his ability to maneuver in a way that helps lead to the neutralization of Ahmadinejad, Khamenei and the IRGC, without letting the system collapse completely, or alter to the point where he will have to account for his nefarious activities for the past 30 years.

As of this writing, the latest information regarding Rafsanjani is that he was slated to hold next week’s Friday Prayers Sermon, on September the 18. This day is also called Qods Day by the regime, a day designated by Khamenei for solidarity with the Palestinians. For years now, the regime has encouraged people to use this day to be out in the streets in support of the Palestinian cause. The Green Movement (a people’s movement that started just prior to the June 12 elections in support of Mousavi and that has now metastasized into a movement completely opposed to the existing order) plans to use this opportunity to continue their protests. The following was just posted on Zahra Rahnavard’s (Mousavi’s wife’s) Facebook page at today approximately 5:35pm Eastern Time:

Zahra Rahnavard زهرا رهنورد Protests reached the heavily controlled city of Qom. Despite intense security measures in the holy city of Qom, people gathered in front of Grand Ayatollah Saneei’s office last night after his strong speech for the Qadr night ceremony and showed their protest to the current events. They were chanting “death to the dictator” and “Coup administration, resign, resign”, “We will meet on Qods Day”.

We will meet on Qods Day. Strong words. This is going to be a very important day for Iran in the post-rigged-election aftermath.

Rafsanjani has already held one friday prayer sermon since the election, and it was cautiously supportive of the people and critical of the crackdown and repression. Since then, various members in the green camp, Karoubi being the most vocal, have sought to hold the regime accountable for the atrocities that have been committed. Karoubi has provided evidence of wholesale rape to the establishment, and has stood firm against various lies and accusations from the regime. There are rumors that the regime has had enough and that Khamenei has issued the warrant for Karoubi’s arrest. The crackdown is starting to reach the establishment opposition figures now. Karoubi, Mousavi, former President Khatami and even Rafsanjani are all vulnerable (some of them more than others). The regime has yet to arrest any of them, probably out of fear of the reaction from the public, but they are trying to slowly bring to boil the proverbial frog in the pot, so that it won’t try to jump out. Rafsanjani, if he does end up being the friday prayers leader next week, will be making one of the most important public appearances in his life. The stakes are very high. He has already triangulated with Khamenei to a certain extent when, several weeks after his first post-election friday prayers, he said that everyone should follow the “Leader”, meaning Khamenei. But since then, a lot has changed. Now that the reformist leaders are on the verge of possible arrest, it is not clear whether Rafsanjani will continue to lend his political weight to Khamenei, or tip his weight in favour of the reformists, or take some alternative route. They don’t call him the Shark for nothing. In any case, he may not be speaking next Friday, if the report from Raja News that Rafsanjani will not be leading friday prayers is correct. This has apparently been denied by Rafsanjani.

Who is Rafsanjani anyway?

A lot of hope has been placed in the shark in recent days. It is therefore very important to try to understand him. A book that I have found to be an absolute required read for anyone interested in what is happening in Iran is the insightful book by Carole Jerome (former CBC correspondent that covered the 1979 revolution extensively) called The Man in the Mirror. I have turned to it time and again when I wanted to get some background into the current players in Iran because Ms. Jerome had first-count insider knowledge via her relationship with the Islamic Republic’s first foreign minister, Sadegh Ghotbzadeh. And it was written in 1987, one year before Khamenei was anointed as the new Supreme Leader. Her observations about the nature of the regime and her predictions on how things were slated to unfold have proven to be very prescient. In her book the first mention of Rafsanjani is in the following paragraphs in the Introduction:

The portrait given here of the inside of the revolution and the regime now in power in Iran should also cast an interesting light on the affair that became known as Iranscam, or the Iran-Contra Affair. When men associated with the Reagan administration were found to have been supplying arms to Iran, they said they were for better or worse trying to support moderate elements they had contacted in Iran through Israeli sources. It is clear from the information in this book that the moderates are dead or in exile, or, like Bazargan [an important political figure in the early days of the revolution], in no position to arrange arms deals. It has also become clear that the Americans in question were in fact dealing with Rafsanjani, allies of his in the Prime Minister’s office, and agents such as Sadegh Tabatabai. It is also clear in this book that these men are not moderate in any sense of the word, but are ruthless, treacherous and are at the heart of the oppressive regime in power. It has always beenunclear how supplies of arms to maintain a war with Iraq–that all real moderates want ended–was to help “moderates.”

The Shark likes to swim in infested waters it seems. He was involved in Iran-Contra, dealing with the Americans and also the Israelis while at the same time breaking bread with the likes of Khomeini and Khamenei. In Iran this is no small feat.

Notice that Jerome does not mince words here. She throws Rafsanjani in with men who are ruthless, treacherous and … at the heart of the oppressive regime in power.

This next excerpt I think not only gives us insight into Rafsanjani, his personality and actions in the early days of the 1979 revolution. The setting is the very early 1980s as the revolution was starting to set in, and the Islamic Republic party was consolidating power:

The semicircular rows of the parliament were filled with turbans. Looking down on them from the gallery above I was seized by the unworthy thought that they [the mullahs in the chamber] all looked like so many cowpats. Directly ahead was Hojatoleslam Hashemi Rafsanjani, now speaker of the parliament. He presided over the proceedings from his desk high on the front podium. Rafsanjani was middle-aged, a big pudgy, and wore his hair in a distinctive fringed style sticking out of his turban. He seemed like a roly-poly schoolboy, as he was the only beardless mullah in sight. They called him the Kouseh, the Shark, because his cheeks were soft and strangely hairless. Rafsanjani was originally named Ali Akbar Bahrami. He had taken the name of his native village, Rafsanjan, where his family had amassed a fortune by cornering the pitachio market.

…

Before the revolution, Rafsanjani had distinguished himself as a liberal thinker and Islamic Revolutionary. He had even written a book on Amir Kabir, who was prime minister under Nasr e Din Shah. Now Rafsanjani wielded the power of the shahs, along with Beheshti and the other doyens of the IRP.

When I met the Shark later that day, he ws inscrutable, saurian. It was a classic banal interview, a game of political hide and journalistic seek, held in his tastefully handsome office in the parliament building.

I was sharing the Shark with Mike Wallace and his crew from CBS’s 60 Minutes. The 60 Minutes crew had just arrived in Iran, and Mike was in effect the first direct contact between Iran and the United States since the severing of diplomatic relations and the subsequent lockout of American journalists.

During my par of the interview Rafsanjani spent most of his energy making a play for my beautiful Iranian translator, concentrating on flirtatious asides to her while giving me evasive answers. He even went so far as to remove his cloak and sit with his chest partly exposed in the clerical equivalent of beefcake. But for the first time, when he talked with Mike, Rafsanjani had toned down his rhetoric and was sounding conciliatory, leaving doors open for a graceful way out of the hostage crisis.

My translator listened with horror as Mike’s interpreter re-created every sentence, giving it a hard edge. Wallace grew ever angrier while Rafsanjani looked bewildered. Eventually we interrupted and explained the problem to the CBS producer. Inaccurate translation by unprofessional translators was a constant hazard of reporting in a delicate situation. But translation aside, Rafsanjani’s conciliatory attitude did seem to indicate a new rift, this time within the IRP [Islamic Republic Party].

None of this, of course meant that Rafsanjani was either liberal or moderate. As I watched his calculated manner, it was easy to remember that he had been the Interior Minister who presided over the first exceses of the revolution, that it had been he who helped Khoapahani, Ahmad [Khomeini's son] and Khoeni’a undermine Sadegh [the moderate foreign minister at the time who wanted to free the hostages] … that Rafsanjani rivalled Beheshti for ruthlessness.

Jerome is referring to Ayatollah Mohamad Beheshti, whose son has now been detained by the current Khamenei-Ahmadinejad-IRGC cabal in power. It is interesting indeed to see how nearly 30 years after the events that Jerome describes in her book, the regime in power is devouring the early revolutionaries, including the children of those revolutionaries. The ruthless being dealt with ruthlessly by the even more ruthless.

Jerome continues with by telling of the rivalry between Rafsanjani and Khamenei, giving prescient insight into what is happening today between the two, as well as the geopolitics in the background of it all:

In fact, there were now several rival clerical leaders. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (a lot of them, like him, were not really ayatollahs but had accorded each other the title after the revolution) had from the beginning been a founding power of the IRP and now began to emerge in his own right. A thin, ascetic looking man with a fierce mien, Khamenei was a righteous zealot who … combined religious zeal with a puritanical devotion to some of the principles he had learned in early days in school in Moscow. It was an odd, powerful mix. Khamenei hated Sadegh [the foreign minister] with a visceral passion, both politically and personally. “Why have we not executed this vile fornicator?” he raved one night at a meeting of clerical allies. An article had appeared in Beheshti’s newspaper linking [Sadegh] to a western female named Jerome.

Rafsanjani’s enmity was cooler, calculated. If Khamenei and his lot were closer to Moscow, Rafsanjani was willing to deal with the Americans, the alternate route to power over his rivals. He would use the Americans as treacherously as the shark he was.

Khamenei = Moscow’s man. Remember that. He gets considerable political power from his alliance with Moscow (currently in the personage of Vladimir Putin, who has flown to Iran to meet with Khamenei). George Bush helped to push Iran further under the umbrella of Russian influence. It would do Obama well to understand this. And this explains why just yesterday the Russians said that they would not support further sanctions against Iran for their nuclear program, as this AFP article reports: Putin: Russia opposes force, sanctions on Iran.

Hopefully the Americans know this, and perhaps this is why they have called Iran’s bluff and accepted the Iranian regime’s counter-proposal to the American proposal for talks in which the regime said it was ready to hold “comprehensive and constructive negotiations”, while at the same time saying that the nuclear file was non-negotiable. Read this BBC article: US open to Iran’s offer of talks. Perhaps Obama is calculating that in order to pull Iran from the clutches of Russia he has to talk to the regime, despite the fact that the stability of the regime is by no means certain. It may even be wishful thinking to suggest that possibly Obama sees that if the U.S. can have some kind of a relationship with Iran in which it can exert some kind of influence, then Iran will not remain as firmly in the Russian camp as it is right now, thereby weakening Khamenei. He may be taking a calculated risk that works in the interests of the U.S. regardless of whether the KhamCo cabal talks to him. If Khamenei accepts the offer of talks, this will help the reformists and the Green Movement while seeming to throw a life-line to the regime. It will help the movement if Khamenei is willing to talk because he will have to moderate his stance towards the U.S. and this will have a trickle-down effect in the entire system that could eventually undermine Khamenei and empower the likes of Rafsanjani who has always wanted relations with the U.S. If Khamenei pulls back from the offer of talks with the U.S. (which is what he will likely do) then he will continue down the path of digging his own grave that he has been walking since he called Mousavi’s and by extension the Iranian people’s dispute over the fraudulent election an attempt at starting a velvet revolution. He will have no choice but to continue his crackdown on dissent, leading to further protests and potential revolts. Either way, Khamenei is probably not getting much sleep, and for that we should all be happy.

While the Shark has to walk (swim?) a fine line to get out without being eaten himself, the quandary that Khamenei has created for himself leaves some room in the murky black waters of the Islamic Republic for Rafsanjani to maneuver. On Qods day we will see whether KhamCo can successfully muzzle the Shark…

While the Green Movement can’t count on Rafsanjani to support them unconditionally (far from it in fact), the situation has some light at the end of the tunnel in that Rafsanjani is likely seething with anger at how Khamenei is handling things. His interests will be aligned with those of the Green Movement insofar as sharing the goal of neutering Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the IRGC, but they will likely diverge when this is accomplished. The people want freedom. Rafsanjani wants a comfortable life for Rafsanjani and family. Rafsanjani, a founding member of the Islamic Republic, will do whatever he can to replace the current murderous, ruthless religious zealots in power with his own ruthless, maybe slightly less zealous people. The Green Movement would do well to keep a wary eye on Shark, no matter what happens. Sharks continually replenish their teeth.

September 07, 2009
By Golnaz Esfandiari

Who is damaging the Islamic republic?

This question pits two increasingly irreconcilable camps against each other as the debate continues to heat up in Tehran.

To hard-liners, the answer is clear: it is the reformists, who are accused of plotting a “velvet coup.” To reformists, it is the hard-liners themselves, whose actions undermine the very system they seek to preserve.

Now, hard-line President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, whose fraud-tainted reelection led to massive street protests and widened the gulf between the two sides, has reiterated his call for opposition leaders to be put on trial for directing the postelection unrest.

“Those who led the [unrest] and planned it, those who accepted the support of the enemy” should be prosecuted, Ahmadinejad said at a press conference with Iranian and foreign media.

“The least was that they didn’t react and by their silence they accepted the support of the enemy and they tried to strike a blow.”

Concern has grown that key figures who are seen as the leaders of the opposition movement could be arrested. They include former President Mohammad Khatami, presidential candidates Mir Hossein Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi, and the head of the Assembly of Experts, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Click here to read the full article in Radio Free Europe.

August has been a quiet month, relatively speaking, insofar as protests against the fraudulent Iranian presidential elections go. The regime has been holding show trials of prominent reformers and protesters in an attempt to link the Green Movement to foreign intrigues and plots and to lay the foundation for a case against leaders of the movement (Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi primarily).

The trials are such obvious shams that even the regime must know that the vast majority of the population can see right through the charade. But in the same spirit of sheer audacity that we witnessed in the aftermath of the stolen election, in which a millions-strong opposition movement was curbed violently and brutally by the various government goon squads (the Basij, Revolutionary Guards, police and “rogue” elements including paid foreign mercenaries) the same government is now putting on this farcical show. They simply don’t care that the people see through it. The people are just sheep to be manipulated and used to further the nefarious agendas of the regime’s current power brokers.

The show trials are primarily for the consumption of the regime’s own loyalists, the very people that crushed the will of the nation. There is a narrative that the regime uses to brainwash its loyalists in order to hold onto power. The narrative revolves around foreign plots to overthrow the precious regime and overturn the Islamic revolution. The Basij and IRGC have obviously been hurt by the public backlash against them, and the hatred that the Iranian people now openly display towards them after the crackdown that they imposed at the order of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. In order to appease them, the narrative must continue. They are more liable to accept the blatant lies of the regime being forced down the throats of the people being held on trial and the population as a whole. They have a vested interest in being this gullible. The government, under Khamenei’s rule and especially during Ahmadinejad’s first stolen term (that’s right, I said ‘first stolen term’) has allowed the IRGC to build a vast financial network for themselves which they run mafia-style. In effect, Iran has become a military-industrial complex of the worst kind. Hence the necessary show-trials.

However, we can’t count the Green Movement out. Far from it in fact. The movement is alive, well, and gestating. Right now, the regime is digging its own grave in various ways. The office and position of the Supreme Leader have been vastly diminished. His hold on power, while appearing fairly solid, is tenuous at best. Ahmadinejad is defying or contradicting Khamenei on a regular basis. In the Islamic Republic system, the Supreme Leader is supposed to be holding the position of leadership while waiting for the hidden Imam, the twelfth Imam, to return. The twelfth Imam is believed by Shias to be in a state of occultation, waiting to return in the end of days to lead all of Islam and the world. Ahmadinejad leaves an empty cabinet seat in wait for the imminent return of the twelfth Imam. This is already a usurpation of one the Supreme Leader’s responsibilities.

There was the scuffle over an appointment of Ahmadinejad’s brother-in-law, Mashaei. Khamenei ordered that Ahmadinejad rescind his decision and it took over a week for Ahmadinejad to comply. And then he promptly appointed Mashaei to the position of his chief of staff. And when recently Khamenei stated that he had seen no evidence implicating the leaders of the opposition (Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi) in having colluded with foreign elements, Ahmadinejad went on to state that he believes that the leaders of the opposition should be dealt with swiftly, and should be punished.

Clearly there is a massive chasm between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad now. Ahmadinejad has become a liability to Khamenei, big time.

This is why Khamenei appointed Sadegh Larijani to head the judiciary. The Larijanis are from a prominent clerical family, and are centrist conservatives. Ahmadinejad is a follower of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, member of the secretive cult of the Hojjatieh (I will talk more about the Hojjatieh in another article). The Larijanis are power-hungry opportunists. Khamenei is giving them the opportunity to deal with Ahmadinejad and the Hojjatieh. It suits Khamenei to do this for several reasons.

First, by distancing himself from Ahmadinejad and the Hojjatieh, Khamenei is trying to return to the role of benevolent and fair leader (pah!). He is basically implying that they have gone too far in the crackdown. In reality he cares only for his own power, so he is upset at Ahmadinejad primarily for the shoddy way in which the coup was orchestrated, and for the disobedience that Ahmadinejad has been showing him of late.

Second, by having two weakened conservative factions (the centrist Larijanis and the Ahmadinejad clan) at each others throats, vying for power, he can sit pretty as Supreme Leader and help everyone make amends.

I think Khamenei wants to get rid of the Hojjatieh, including Ahmadinejad, but only when he is certain that this won’t entail his own demise.

Expect a few of the loyal servants of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei to be hung out to dry. My bet is on the notorious chief prosecutor of Tehran, Saeed Mortazavi. He may soon be implicated in prisoner abuse and torture soon, and probably executed, or at the very least imprisoned. He deserves this fate. After all, he was behind the torture, rape and murder of the Canadian-Iranian journalist, Zahra Kazemi, in 2003. Back then, the government of Iran backed him. He was responsible for the prosecution during the recent show-trials. Larijani just fired him.

As the Machiavellian plots continue to unfold in the power structures of Iran, one thing remains certain: the quiet that we are experiencing right now from the people does not mean that they have been silenced. Far from it, this is the quiet before the storm. The Green Movement is alive and well and in waiting for the next opportunity to put a stick in the eye of this regime.

Oppression in Iran seems tougher than ever, but beneath the surface, cracks are appearing and public anger still burns.

Rosemary Righter

In 80 cities across the globe this weekend, demonstrators belatedly gathered in support of Iran’s voters. But international solidarity has taken a full six weeks since the stolen elections to manifest itself, and many people outside Iran must have wondered whether it was not too late to “make a difference”. Iran’s million-strong post-election armies of protest have been bludgeoned off the streets by vicious militias, cut off from each other and the outside world by a draconian and expensive censorship drive, and terrorised by shootings, disappearances and the open use of confessions obtained by torture.

On the surface, “order” has been enforced. But only on the surface. Inside Iran, public anger still burns, flaring up wherever opportunity presents. At the core of the Islamic regime, a struggle has been unleashed that — by stepping off his pedestal into the thick of the fray — the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has lost his once- undisputed power to bring under control. Far from subsiding, dissent is shaking the regime to its roots.

“The dust of sedition has risen into the air from every corner” and “the elements involved are no longer even concealing their faces,” thundered the hardline newspaper Kayhan last Thursday. “The deceit of the enemy has become mixed with the affection of friends.” With gross and deliberate exaggeration, the article charged “extremists” with “concentrating their efforts on the sole source of indestructible power of the political system” — theological rule under the Velayat-e Faqih — and of using Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the champion of Iranian rights, as their dupe.

Click here to read the full article in The Times Online.

By ROBERT F. WORTH and NAZILA FATHI
Published: July 25, 2009

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The leaders of Iran’s opposition movement sent an open letter of protest to the country’s highest religious authorities on Saturday, complaining that the state had used “illegal, immoral and irreligious methods” in the crackdown following last month’s disputed presidential election and calling for the release of hundreds of people arrested since.

The letter came a day after the funeral of a young protester with links to Iran’s political elite, whose father told a senior military commander that the youth had been beaten after his arrest, held incommunicado and allowed to die of an infection. The funeral drew senior figures, including conservative members of Parliament and a representative from the office of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Click here to read the full article in The New York Times.

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